Determination of Acceptable Risk by Considering Direct damage Caused Earthquake Incident in Lifeline (Road Transport)

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Head of Logistic,Systems Management&Disaster Dept Road, Housing&Urban Development Research Center

2 zanjan university

10.22034/tri.2023.366197.3092

Abstract

Direct damage assessment is one of the main steps in determining the risk of road transport network against unexpected events such as earthquakes. Based on the amount of increase in existing damages, a solution to reduce damages is presented. The appropriate measure of the amount of damage is provided; the cost of improvement is proportional. Setting less than risk acceptable will increase future losses and setting more than needed, although it increases safety but also increases costs.

In this research, based on the amount of possible damage to a road and infrastructures due to the earthquake in terms of the percentage of replacement (in case of complete damage, the replacement cost is 100 units) the amount of direct damage has been investigated. Earthquake intensity is considered in three categories: severe, moderate and mild according to different return periods, and the performance of the road is considered in four categories: freeway, highway, First Rate main road and second Rate Main Road. In this regard, based on Opinions of experts and officials, a method for calculating direct damage is provided and by implementing the method in 14 cases, the necessary validation was done.

The results showed that among the effective parameters, four parameters: topography, the road infrastructures, the alternative roads or without it and the importance of the origin-destination had More impact on the amount of damage. Among these, the topography has the greatest impact and its effect is more severe by changing the degree of road performance from the freeway to the other roads.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Journal of Transportation Research

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 09 April 2023

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics