A model for public transport budgeting using multivariate regression with system dynamic approach

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 PhD student in Industrial Management, Faculty of Management, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran.

2 Department of Management, Faculty of Management, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran.

10.22034/tri.2023.379807.3117

Abstract

There are many factors in the use of cars or citizens' reluctance to use a certain type of public transportation, but this paper want to budget public transportation and guide citizens to use public transportation. For this purpose, this research presents a dynamic model for the public transportation system of Mashhad using regression equations in order to achieve sustainable development. In this research, using the data related to public transportation and the opinion of experts in this field, the circular causal model of public transportation in Mashhad city was designed and simulated using Vansim software. After checking and adjusting the circular causal model, the flow diagram of the model was drawn. Then, the validity of model was formulated and tested. According to the results of the model, if the bus be free, the bus allocates about 18.06 percent of the trips, and if three thousand tomans are considered, this ratio decreases to about 11.22. It means every 1000 tomans increase in the fare rate, while keeping constant for the fare other modes, we have a 2.28% decrease in the share of bus from intra-city trips. Finally, according to the opinion of experts, 4 scenarios were presented, the results of each of which were analyzed on the development of the sustainability of the public transportation system in Mashhad.

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Main Subjects

Journal of Transportation Research

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 23 July 2023

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